* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * JOSEPHINE AL102008 09/02/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 53 60 65 68 71 72 66 61 52 44 39 38 V (KT) LAND 45 53 60 65 68 71 72 66 61 52 44 39 38 V (KT) LGE mod 45 52 58 62 66 68 63 57 52 48 45 41 40 SHEAR (KTS) 3 8 11 20 25 29 26 21 29 29 30 23 12 SHEAR DIR 153 249 239 227 212 227 203 223 202 209 217 224 240 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.4 26.8 26.3 26.3 26.8 27.2 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 143 139 136 130 123 117 117 122 126 128 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 143 142 137 134 126 118 111 109 112 115 117 117 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 76 74 73 69 67 59 58 55 57 58 57 55 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 16 17 19 21 18 17 16 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 55 48 34 34 38 35 35 24 29 23 9 -12 -38 200 MB DIV 74 78 58 16 40 15 33 18 -5 -33 -13 -20 -26 LAND (KM) 852 986 1122 1247 1374 1654 1915 2151 2100 2034 1946 1909 1909 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.8 16.7 18.0 19.2 20.0 20.2 20.7 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 25.3 26.6 27.9 29.1 30.3 32.9 35.3 37.6 39.8 41.8 43.6 45.3 47.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 12 13 13 13 12 11 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 2 11 13 10 6 4 3 4 11 20 21 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -8. -12. -14. -18. -20. -20. -19. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 20. 23. 25. 21. 17. 11. 3. -2. -4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 8. 15. 20. 23. 26. 27. 21. 16. 7. -1. -6. -7. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/02/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/02/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY