* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP952008 09/02/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 28 30 33 33 33 36 39 40 42 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 28 30 33 33 33 36 39 40 42 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 28 29 30 29 26 23 19 15 SHEAR (KTS) 16 14 14 12 13 15 21 35 45 51 55 53 59 SHEAR DIR 230 235 245 229 223 229 277 286 294 286 270 266 271 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 138 136 135 133 133 134 136 137 138 138 137 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -55.2 -55.0 -55.3 -55.1 -55.1 -54.5 -54.9 -54.9 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 56 51 48 46 42 36 31 29 30 32 35 38 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -18 -29 -37 -45 -48 -40 -36 -20 -21 -20 -20 -20 200 MB DIV -1 -9 -8 -3 -3 -15 12 -32 -11 32 62 121 136 LAND (KM) 1165 1183 1207 1235 1269 1355 1420 1520 1626 1753 1886 2009 2145 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.6 11.0 11.2 11.2 11.1 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.8 LONG(DEG W) 160.6 161.4 162.2 163.0 163.8 165.4 167.0 168.6 170.0 171.5 173.1 174.6 176.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 15. 16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 8. 8. 11. 14. 15. 17. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP952008 INVEST 09/02/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952008 INVEST 09/02/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY