* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KARINA EP122008 09/02/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 35 34 30 25 23 21 21 23 21 20 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 35 34 30 25 23 21 21 23 21 20 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 42 42 40 37 34 31 29 27 25 24 SHEAR (KTS) 27 26 22 20 20 20 15 17 15 15 11 12 13 SHEAR DIR 75 87 95 97 100 110 115 120 111 119 82 99 106 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.0 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 135 133 130 126 121 118 117 117 120 121 118 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 65 60 62 57 53 50 46 48 47 50 50 53 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 4 4 5 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 37 29 27 15 13 28 14 27 26 37 28 27 14 200 MB DIV 1 0 0 -23 -28 -18 4 -10 -17 -7 -5 -9 -7 LAND (KM) 440 450 469 496 527 581 643 675 688 719 788 847 914 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.0 19.5 19.3 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 112.6 113.2 113.7 114.2 115.2 116.1 116.6 116.8 117.0 117.4 118.0 118.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 5 5 3 1 1 2 3 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 37.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -2. -4. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 0. -1. -5. -10. -12. -14. -14. -12. -14. -15. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP122008 KARINA 09/02/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 37.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122008 KARINA 09/02/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY