* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 09/03/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 60 62 66 71 68 66 64 58 51 44 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 60 62 66 71 68 66 41 31 30 29 V (KT) LGE mod 55 54 54 55 56 59 63 63 62 40 31 30 32 SHEAR (KTS) 27 19 15 16 18 18 25 14 19 20 35 54 95 SHEAR DIR 303 295 272 204 198 164 128 145 165 200 209 220 237 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.3 28.5 27.5 26.3 22.1 14.9 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 151 153 155 161 158 145 133 121 93 75 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 134 136 139 141 148 145 131 118 110 87 73 74 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -51.0 -50.1 -50.1 -50.3 -49.3 -49.7 -49.5 -49.6 -49.6 -50.2 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 6 7 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 63 61 64 63 53 47 47 43 47 48 49 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 26 26 29 29 30 32 27 25 23 21 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 107 93 101 133 148 141 110 56 49 55 63 82 96 200 MB DIV 76 75 87 84 71 31 62 20 35 50 80 83 43 LAND (KM) 69 122 177 221 252 337 261 160 57 -195 -96 -36 26 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.0 21.5 22.2 22.8 24.3 26.6 29.1 31.9 35.7 40.3 44.8 48.9 LONG(DEG W) 72.4 72.6 72.8 73.5 74.1 75.7 77.5 79.1 80.3 79.0 75.2 69.1 61.5 STM SPEED (KT) 1 5 7 9 10 12 14 14 16 23 30 33 32 HEAT CONTENT 73 69 68 70 57 71 55 45 2 9999 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 15. 13. 11. 5. -1. -9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 5. 7. 11. 16. 13. 11. 9. 3. -4. -11. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 09/03/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 09/03/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY