* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/03/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 66 68 70 66 63 59 59 61 64 66 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 66 68 70 66 63 59 59 61 64 66 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 61 65 68 74 76 74 70 67 67 71 78 SHEAR (KTS) 5 4 3 6 9 20 26 32 26 14 6 11 13 SHEAR DIR 152 179 331 29 28 31 54 56 59 28 7 316 298 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.3 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 132 134 136 142 148 155 158 160 156 153 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 127 128 129 134 138 146 150 152 148 143 146 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 53 53 51 51 47 50 51 54 56 59 62 64 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 13 12 11 9 7 7 7 7 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 12 4 -1 -14 -32 -54 -72 -68 -74 -62 -48 -20 -9 200 MB DIV -1 -15 -19 -21 -16 -5 -34 20 -3 1 -6 22 9 LAND (KM) 1721 1667 1565 1468 1311 1032 804 596 432 316 211 167 86 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.7 21.0 21.7 22.2 22.4 22.3 22.0 21.7 21.7 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 47.2 48.7 50.2 51.9 53.5 56.5 59.2 62.0 65.1 68.1 71.0 73.7 76.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 16 15 14 13 14 14 14 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 26 28 22 27 29 34 44 53 45 81 70 69 81 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 11. 14. 11. 8. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. 11. 8. 4. 4. 6. 9. 11. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/03/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/03/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY