* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * JOSEPHINE AL102008 09/03/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 58 60 62 60 56 50 44 39 36 38 V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 58 60 62 60 56 50 44 39 36 38 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 54 57 59 59 55 51 47 44 41 39 39 SHEAR (KTS) 1 14 15 26 27 28 27 27 28 27 27 17 1 SHEAR DIR 265 213 213 216 222 224 214 209 205 214 227 256 237 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.2 26.6 26.3 26.5 27.0 27.3 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 141 136 134 128 121 117 119 124 128 129 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 140 134 131 124 116 110 111 115 119 119 119 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 76 75 70 67 64 58 58 58 55 51 51 49 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 17 15 14 13 13 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 44 31 28 28 34 14 13 26 33 30 7 -16 -37 200 MB DIV 64 28 -9 9 19 -4 -5 -9 -3 -22 -7 -32 -36 LAND (KM) 959 1092 1228 1359 1492 1761 2034 2079 2029 1988 1977 1929 1758 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.7 15.1 16.0 17.0 18.1 19.1 20.1 21.1 21.8 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 26.3 27.6 28.9 30.2 31.4 33.9 36.4 38.7 40.7 42.7 44.7 47.0 49.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 3 8 12 11 9 4 5 3 6 16 19 18 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. -21. -17. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 13. 15. 14. 10. 6. 3. -3. -6. -5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 11. 13. 15. 17. 15. 11. 5. -1. -6. -9. -7. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/03/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/03/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY