* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP952008 09/03/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 36 38 38 37 38 39 41 42 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 36 38 38 37 38 39 41 42 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 28 25 21 17 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 15 15 15 16 14 19 27 41 49 53 58 58 60 SHEAR DIR 238 244 228 235 244 258 279 290 295 282 269 269 266 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 139 136 136 135 136 137 138 138 138 138 138 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -55.0 -55.2 -54.9 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 49 48 46 42 38 36 32 33 33 35 35 39 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 1 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -23 -36 -47 -53 -46 -39 -32 -21 -20 -17 -18 -21 200 MB DIV 4 -3 -13 -10 -2 -1 -12 -7 46 71 120 128 127 LAND (KM) 1237 1264 1295 1336 1383 1460 1552 1660 1770 1885 1998 2115 2238 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 LONG(DEG W) 161.6 162.5 163.3 164.2 165.0 166.7 168.4 170.0 171.4 172.8 174.2 175.6 177.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 13. 12. 13. 14. 16. 17. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP952008 INVEST 09/03/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952008 INVEST 09/03/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY