* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KARINA EP122008 09/03/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 28 25 20 16 DIS 15 18 20 20 20 V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 28 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 33 32 30 27 25 24 23 22 21 20 SHEAR (KTS) 25 22 19 18 18 11 15 10 14 7 11 10 11 SHEAR DIR 75 90 95 103 110 118 116 109 110 72 75 101 121 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.2 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.7 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 133 131 127 122 119 118 116 117 117 116 112 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 3 4 3 3 2 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 61 62 57 52 49 46 45 48 47 51 52 54 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 29 26 11 7 5 8 12 21 28 36 20 14 -13 200 MB DIV 2 -8 -25 -32 -23 -18 2 -17 -17 -28 -10 -28 -29 LAND (KM) 428 458 493 524 547 585 634 662 653 653 660 665 685 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.3 20.2 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.4 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.2 113.7 114.2 114.7 115.6 116.1 116.4 116.4 116.4 116.5 116.7 117.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 1 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 36.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -13. -12. -12. -12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -19. -21. -20. -17. -15. -15. -15. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP122008 KARINA 09/03/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122008 KARINA 09/03/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED