* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 09/03/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 64 64 69 69 66 62 59 54 46 37 V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 64 64 69 69 66 48 33 30 32 25 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 58 60 62 66 69 68 50 33 30 30 28 SHEAR (KTS) 19 14 18 22 20 15 22 28 33 36 52 69 92 SHEAR DIR 295 251 231 217 212 177 148 145 177 189 210 226 246 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.6 29.1 27.9 26.9 24.1 19.6 15.8 13.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 151 154 156 163 155 138 127 104 85 77 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 136 138 143 144 151 144 126 114 96 80 74 72 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.1 -50.2 -49.9 -50.4 -50.0 -49.8 -49.8 -50.0 -49.7 -50.7 -50.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 7 3 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 58 51 48 40 44 48 48 48 45 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 26 29 32 29 28 25 23 21 21 23 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 107 115 138 150 151 143 68 46 58 89 57 71 30 200 MB DIV 74 84 93 51 38 41 21 13 36 119 91 74 67 LAND (KM) 24 88 155 190 226 318 148 102 -128 -234 -136 11 0 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.7 21.3 22.1 22.9 24.6 27.0 30.0 33.7 38.0 42.7 47.2 51.3 LONG(DEG W) 72.5 72.8 73.0 73.9 74.8 76.6 78.6 80.2 80.8 78.3 72.5 64.8 55.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 6 9 12 12 13 16 18 20 28 34 36 36 HEAT CONTENT 14 71 69 63 74 91 17 9 9999 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):152/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 6. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 10. 15. 15. 12. 9. 6. 1. -8. -16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 9. 14. 14. 11. 7. 4. -1. -9. -18. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 09/03/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 09/03/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED