* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/03/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 63 65 65 59 54 53 56 61 66 69 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 63 65 65 59 54 53 56 61 66 69 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 59 62 64 69 69 65 60 59 64 73 85 SHEAR (KTS) 3 2 7 10 12 24 33 36 16 9 2 1 8 SHEAR DIR 136 48 53 48 45 43 59 61 53 69 161 100 259 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.5 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 133 136 138 145 153 155 159 162 159 156 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 126 127 129 131 136 142 143 147 153 150 146 149 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 50 51 51 49 50 50 53 60 60 64 60 60 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 11 11 10 7 7 7 7 9 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -6 -15 -35 -53 -90 -91 -81 -72 -45 -29 0 23 200 MB DIV -20 -30 -36 -22 2 -23 -24 32 0 2 4 46 3 LAND (KM) 1684 1575 1454 1306 1166 926 700 548 489 383 341 206 61 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.8 21.0 21.5 21.9 22.8 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.7 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 48.9 50.5 52.1 53.7 55.2 58.2 61.1 63.6 65.8 68.5 71.9 74.8 77.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 14 12 11 12 14 15 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 27 19 26 28 38 43 45 52 44 67 51 74 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -5. -6. -4. -2. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 3. -1. 0. 4. 9. 15. 17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 4. -1. -2. 1. 6. 11. 14. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/03/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/03/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED