* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * JOSEPHINE AL102008 09/03/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 49 50 50 47 42 39 33 29 28 28 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 49 50 50 47 42 39 33 29 28 28 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 47 47 47 43 39 36 32 29 26 24 SHEAR (KTS) 11 13 22 25 28 27 29 31 33 33 38 23 15 SHEAR DIR 221 219 212 218 217 206 208 205 204 219 226 238 240 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.2 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.9 27.3 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 139 136 133 127 120 117 117 124 129 131 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 137 133 130 123 114 109 109 116 122 123 120 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.8 -53.4 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 72 71 67 66 62 65 63 60 63 61 58 54 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 13 15 16 16 14 13 13 11 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 22 20 17 24 16 19 18 38 43 51 47 10 -17 200 MB DIV 30 -19 16 19 0 -2 6 6 0 10 -6 -23 -8 LAND (KM) 1030 1160 1291 1413 1535 1793 2055 2053 1986 1911 1869 1879 1743 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.9 17.0 17.7 18.2 18.9 20.0 21.3 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 27.0 28.3 29.5 30.7 31.8 34.2 36.6 38.6 40.2 42.2 44.7 47.2 49.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 12 13 11 9 9 12 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 2 12 13 10 8 4 5 4 5 12 21 20 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -18. -23. -28. -31. -31. -28. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -3. -6. -12. -16. -17. -17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -3. -6. -12. -16. -17. -17. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/03/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/03/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED