* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP952008 09/03/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 38 38 38 41 44 47 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 38 38 38 41 44 47 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 26 22 19 17 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 16 16 20 19 19 28 43 54 50 52 51 52 50 SHEAR DIR 237 249 267 277 275 290 292 292 280 271 264 263 259 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 140 140 140 141 141 141 141 142 143 143 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 -54.8 -54.9 -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 11 10 11 10 11 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 46 45 40 38 39 35 34 36 35 38 40 40 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -26 -42 -49 -53 -51 -54 -37 -29 -19 -5 -10 -5 200 MB DIV 7 -13 -31 -17 0 8 15 54 104 123 162 143 186 LAND (KM) 1370 1417 1471 1534 1575 1697 1843 1995 2161 2315 2450 2585 2734 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.6 9.3 9.0 8.9 8.7 8.6 LONG(DEG W) 163.2 164.2 165.2 166.2 167.2 169.4 171.5 173.3 175.1 176.7 178.2 179.6 181.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 787 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 16. 18. 21. 24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 13. 13. 16. 19. 22. 25. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP952008 INVEST 09/03/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP952008 INVEST 09/03/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY