* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KARINA EP122008 09/03/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 16 17 18 V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 25 23 21 18 17 16 16 15 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 23 22 23 21 18 11 13 15 16 12 12 11 14 SHEAR DIR 86 88 100 119 137 116 121 96 99 122 150 167 190 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.4 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 128 125 122 119 119 121 122 122 121 114 108 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 62 56 51 49 47 45 44 42 45 47 51 51 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 10 3 0 7 6 13 21 39 33 32 39 40 200 MB DIV -7 -18 -23 -19 -19 -25 -9 -8 -7 -6 -6 5 0 LAND (KM) 476 514 547 564 585 618 655 676 688 694 694 708 688 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.5 20.4 20.2 19.9 19.7 19.7 19.9 20.4 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.1 114.7 115.2 115.6 116.0 116.3 116.2 116.1 116.2 116.5 117.3 117.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 0 1 3 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. -13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -16. -20. -19. -16. -14. -13. -12. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP122008 KARINA 09/03/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122008 KARINA 09/03/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY