* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 09/03/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 54 57 62 63 59 58 59 53 45 31 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 54 57 62 63 59 44 39 33 25 21 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 51 52 54 58 60 59 45 38 36 33 31 SHEAR (KTS) 13 7 20 21 19 18 20 24 27 37 49 84 105 SHEAR DIR 262 220 205 209 183 161 145 163 186 199 223 246 264 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 28.8 28.0 26.9 22.6 14.0 16.0 12.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 151 153 156 158 162 151 139 127 97 75 77 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 139 141 144 146 151 138 126 116 91 73 74 70 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -49.9 -50.1 -50.6 -50.8 -49.7 -49.7 -49.7 -50.2 -50.0 -50.9 -51.2 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 9 9 7 6 2 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 64 62 57 55 50 45 45 53 53 47 43 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 27 27 25 27 27 25 20 18 20 20 19 15 850 MB ENV VOR 119 130 131 124 133 122 58 41 64 71 78 11 -6 200 MB DIV 103 112 59 16 32 62 18 35 53 98 75 13 -9 LAND (KM) 56 146 233 279 308 402 216 153 -118 10 38 -7 382 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 21.2 22.0 22.8 23.5 25.5 28.3 31.5 35.2 39.6 44.6 48.8 52.2 LONG(DEG W) 71.8 72.2 72.5 73.4 74.3 76.2 78.3 79.3 78.4 74.2 66.6 58.4 50.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 9 10 11 12 15 16 17 23 33 36 33 31 HEAT CONTENT 47 70 66 69 67 47 45 28 9999 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 9. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -5. -7. -6. -6. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 9. 14. 15. 11. 9. 10. 4. -4. -17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 13. 9. 8. 9. 3. -5. -19. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 09/03/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 09/03/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY