* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/03/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 67 69 70 67 63 59 59 65 68 74 77 V (KT) LAND 60 64 67 69 70 67 63 59 59 65 68 74 77 V (KT) LGE mod 60 63 66 69 72 74 72 67 63 64 70 81 92 SHEAR (KTS) 0 5 7 11 18 28 36 29 12 3 2 6 5 SHEAR DIR 47 51 33 32 24 48 54 54 77 127 276 184 293 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 134 138 141 148 154 158 159 157 156 154 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 126 127 130 132 138 143 147 149 146 145 144 148 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 48 50 48 50 49 53 58 62 64 66 65 60 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 8 8 7 8 13 13 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -14 -32 -47 -63 -91 -76 -70 -47 -18 9 28 54 200 MB DIV -35 -35 -26 10 5 -39 19 2 4 9 27 26 7 LAND (KM) 1564 1474 1330 1197 1071 828 661 505 413 280 265 166 68 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.0 21.4 21.8 22.2 22.6 23.0 22.8 22.4 22.2 22.2 22.1 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 50.4 51.9 53.4 54.9 56.3 59.2 61.8 64.4 67.0 69.5 71.9 74.5 77.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 13 12 12 12 11 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 26 27 40 34 43 51 44 65 63 29 70 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -4. -7. -7. -5. -2. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 2. -1. 1. 8. 12. 17. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 9. 10. 7. 3. -1. -1. 5. 8. 14. 17. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/03/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/03/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY