* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * JOSEPHINE AL102008 09/03/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 60 60 59 55 49 43 37 30 26 24 26 V (KT) LAND 55 59 60 60 59 55 49 43 37 30 26 24 26 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 61 62 61 58 51 45 40 36 32 31 31 SHEAR (KTS) 11 19 26 31 29 32 34 33 33 31 28 15 11 SHEAR DIR 224 220 219 219 213 208 213 212 220 224 241 237 242 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.6 26.8 27.2 27.5 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 136 134 131 126 121 120 122 127 131 130 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 134 131 128 122 115 113 114 119 124 122 122 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 72 68 67 65 62 67 63 61 62 58 58 54 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 12 10 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 19 11 19 14 7 19 24 36 38 40 34 -5 -40 200 MB DIV -18 3 -3 -17 -30 15 -10 11 -3 6 -8 -26 20 LAND (KM) 1158 1283 1409 1541 1674 1943 2034 1939 1870 1826 1853 1793 1582 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.2 16.0 16.8 17.5 18.2 19.1 20.5 21.7 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 28.2 29.4 30.6 31.9 33.1 35.6 37.9 40.0 41.9 43.9 46.1 48.6 51.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 11 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 10 8 7 4 6 6 10 20 24 22 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -2. -6. -9. -15. -20. -26. -30. -33. -34. -31. -27. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 4. 3. 0. -5. -11. -16. -23. -26. -28. -27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. -6. -12. -18. -25. -29. -30. -29. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/03/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/03/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY