* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KARINA EP122008 09/03/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 21 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 24 26 27 24 16 13 11 13 12 9 4 10 N/A SHEAR DIR 93 106 124 140 142 125 105 111 111 119 140 183 N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.2 25.9 25.6 24.9 24.4 24.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 128 127 124 122 121 119 117 110 104 100 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 51 50 50 50 47 45 43 48 48 47 48 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 10 10 16 6 8 13 18 25 17 -1 -16 N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -11 -10 -19 -20 -22 -16 -10 -21 -7 -19 -22 N/A LAND (KM) 494 527 562 581 602 654 691 721 762 820 852 865 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.0 19.8 19.9 20.0 20.5 21.1 21.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.2 114.6 115.0 115.4 116.0 116.3 116.9 117.6 118.8 119.6 120.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 4 5 4 2 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -12. -13. -12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -15. -16. -17. -13. -11. -12. -11. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP122008 KARINA 09/03/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122008 KARINA 09/03/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY