* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 09/03/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 53 55 58 60 59 59 59 54 47 34 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 53 55 58 60 59 42 32 29 30 21 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 50 51 53 56 59 59 43 32 30 32 27 SHEAR (KTS) 19 21 17 18 22 18 20 23 27 40 70 87 87 SHEAR DIR 237 202 205 175 158 141 147 174 175 198 213 233 231 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.3 28.7 28.0 26.5 22.3 14.1 17.1 16.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 157 159 161 158 149 139 123 95 73 74 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 139 144 147 147 144 134 124 111 89 71 69 67 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.4 -50.7 -50.7 -50.0 -50.0 -49.4 -49.7 -50.1 -50.8 -51.0 -52.7 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 9 7 5 4 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 64 57 57 50 49 44 42 48 48 40 39 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 25 24 25 25 23 22 19 17 19 19 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 131 150 133 137 138 91 56 41 76 49 63 31 43 200 MB DIV 82 50 59 52 67 20 44 40 44 80 92 58 43 LAND (KM) 177 262 355 401 461 387 246 119 -147 -31 -39 112 -1 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.3 23.1 24.1 25.0 26.8 29.2 31.9 35.6 40.0 45.1 47.5 47.7 LONG(DEG W) 72.0 72.3 72.6 73.5 74.4 76.2 78.2 79.2 78.4 74.5 67.5 62.2 58.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 11 13 12 13 15 16 22 32 29 17 14 HEAT CONTENT 67 53 65 73 72 64 46 21 9999 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 433 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 8. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -6. -6. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 11. 11. 10. 4. -3. -14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 9. 9. 9. 4. -3. -16. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 09/03/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 09/03/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY