* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/03/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 72 73 71 65 61 58 60 65 69 71 73 V (KT) LAND 65 69 72 73 71 65 61 58 60 65 69 71 73 V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 73 75 76 75 69 64 62 66 74 85 92 SHEAR (KTS) 6 8 14 21 30 38 31 24 9 4 3 9 3 SHEAR DIR 59 334 1 21 30 51 48 51 26 326 283 263 313 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 132 135 139 141 143 151 156 159 159 155 155 155 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 130 131 131 133 138 143 147 147 143 142 140 141 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 51 48 48 49 50 52 59 61 63 61 63 56 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 11 10 9 7 7 7 9 12 14 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -34 -54 -70 -92 -99 -88 -81 -32 0 28 40 71 200 MB DIV -22 -20 11 -7 -26 -1 5 -21 19 18 30 2 12 LAND (KM) 1478 1330 1197 1091 999 839 686 534 340 229 300 235 149 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 22.0 22.7 23.2 23.7 24.1 24.1 23.3 22.2 21.8 22.6 22.8 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 51.9 53.6 55.2 56.6 58.0 60.5 63.2 65.7 68.0 70.2 72.4 74.4 76.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 15 14 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 27 37 39 44 44 56 44 80 68 62 76 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 0. -2. -8. -11. -13. -11. -8. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 6. 5. 0. -4. -6. -3. 3. 7. 9. 11. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 8. 6. 0. -4. -7. -5. 0. 4. 6. 8. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/03/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/03/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY