* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * JOSEPHINE AL102008 09/03/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 49 48 47 46 43 40 37 37 39 41 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 49 48 47 46 43 40 37 37 39 41 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 50 49 48 45 43 41 40 39 40 41 45 SHEAR (KTS) 19 25 28 28 24 22 22 26 23 19 16 9 7 SHEAR DIR 224 225 215 214 201 197 178 191 193 202 193 194 275 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 135 132 131 127 125 124 127 132 131 132 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 136 132 129 127 124 121 118 121 125 124 124 127 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -54.5 -54.0 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -53.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 71 72 69 65 68 63 60 58 53 53 47 45 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 13 11 9 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 25 24 24 20 29 35 39 48 41 29 1 -16 -49 200 MB DIV 3 0 -12 -18 13 15 23 12 0 0 -19 -11 8 LAND (KM) 1276 1407 1539 1665 1793 2044 1895 1780 1690 1663 1686 1580 1334 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.7 18.7 19.9 21.2 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 29.3 30.6 31.8 33.0 34.2 36.6 39.1 41.6 44.0 46.3 48.4 50.9 53.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 8 9 7 7 9 14 20 24 27 22 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -6. -8. -13. -16. -19. -22. -23. -22. -19. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -9. -7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -13. -11. -9. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/03/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/03/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY