* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 09/04/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 60 61 61 58 54 52 47 41 36 28 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 60 61 61 58 44 37 33 28 24 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 60 62 64 65 63 47 38 36 33 28 32 SHEAR (KTS) 23 22 24 24 29 32 34 35 45 62 83 85 90 SHEAR DIR 202 198 175 159 162 159 172 178 186 204 218 239 251 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.2 27.0 22.9 16.6 16.6 16.0 13.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 159 160 158 152 142 128 96 76 76 73 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 146 146 147 145 138 126 114 88 73 72 69 67 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.8 -50.9 -50.1 -50.0 -50.1 -49.8 -50.0 -50.5 -51.1 -51.5 -52.8 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 7 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 57 56 51 45 43 44 53 48 46 48 50 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 24 24 23 23 20 17 16 14 14 17 20 23 850 MB ENV VOR 140 135 131 131 116 65 55 60 70 84 61 63 80 200 MB DIV 46 48 62 62 28 21 42 36 106 88 62 55 13 LAND (KM) 321 416 474 533 497 345 143 -77 5 76 4 -62 88 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.7 24.6 25.6 26.6 29.0 31.9 35.2 39.2 43.0 46.5 48.2 48.5 LONG(DEG W) 71.8 72.5 73.1 74.1 75.1 77.1 78.7 77.8 74.6 69.6 63.4 57.4 51.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 16 16 20 25 28 25 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 49 67 71 68 60 47 30 9999 0 0 0 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 11 CX,CY: 1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 442 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. 8. 5. 1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -8. -5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 6. 2. -2. -7. -13. -18. -25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -1. -3. -8. -14. -19. -27. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 09/04/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 09/04/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY