* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * JOSEPHINE AL102008 09/04/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 37 35 34 33 32 31 32 34 38 39 V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 37 35 34 33 32 31 32 34 38 39 V (KT) LGE mod 45 42 39 38 37 35 34 33 32 31 31 33 37 SHEAR (KTS) 21 24 24 26 27 21 27 26 22 22 6 10 9 SHEAR DIR 212 206 208 203 200 183 185 203 204 218 232 272 320 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.9 27.3 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 133 132 131 127 124 124 128 132 132 131 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 130 129 127 123 118 118 122 124 124 123 125 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 75 71 71 68 65 61 58 56 52 53 48 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 9 8 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 27 22 25 36 36 48 53 58 36 23 -12 -26 -61 200 MB DIV -2 -12 -18 12 0 -14 19 0 0 -11 -21 -12 -30 LAND (KM) 1372 1493 1615 1736 1858 1993 1881 1784 1687 1644 1631 1549 1376 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.5 16.3 17.1 17.8 18.6 19.4 20.7 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 30.2 31.4 32.5 33.7 34.8 37.2 39.4 41.8 44.2 46.5 48.6 50.8 53.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 9 8 7 8 9 14 20 25 28 23 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -22. -21. -18. -15. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13. -11. -7. -4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. -11. -7. -6. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/04/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/04/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY