* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 09/04/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 65 66 66 67 64 61 59 54 48 47 41 V (KT) LAND 60 63 65 66 66 67 64 41 44 34 33 32 26 V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 67 70 71 71 69 44 46 43 37 34 33 SHEAR (KTS) 27 21 23 24 24 27 22 27 35 57 76 90 72 SHEAR DIR 208 194 171 166 164 159 177 194 208 211 234 240 250 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.5 27.8 25.1 20.7 14.2 16.9 13.5 16.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 160 159 157 146 137 111 87 72 76 73 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 147 148 146 144 130 122 102 81 70 72 71 74 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -50.0 -50.1 -50.1 -49.9 -49.9 -50.1 -50.7 -51.3 -52.2 -51.5 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 8 7 5 5 0 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 56 54 48 48 41 42 51 46 44 48 37 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 25 24 23 21 21 17 15 15 14 17 26 31 850 MB ENV VOR 127 122 134 102 79 51 39 55 19 72 81 117 159 200 MB DIV 64 65 70 24 6 36 40 70 93 100 50 51 22 LAND (KM) 379 446 508 514 410 283 42 -17 31 0 50 91 807 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 24.3 25.3 26.5 27.6 30.1 33.1 36.9 41.2 44.7 47.1 48.4 48.7 LONG(DEG W) 72.3 73.1 73.9 75.0 76.0 78.3 78.9 76.2 71.2 65.6 59.9 51.8 42.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 14 15 15 15 17 26 28 25 25 30 32 HEAT CONTENT 60 72 70 60 57 52 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 3. -1. -4. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -6. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -8. -1. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 8. 4. 1. -6. -11. -12. -18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 4. 2. -1. -6. -12. -13. -19. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 09/04/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 09/04/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED