* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * IKE AL092008 09/04/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 129 120 106 94 78 71 73 73 73 74 78 85 V (KT) LAND 125 129 120 106 94 78 71 73 73 73 74 78 85 V (KT) LGE mod 125 133 131 123 115 103 94 91 93 98 103 106 109 SHEAR (KTS) 13 20 27 32 34 31 25 11 6 4 11 5 6 SHEAR DIR 4 9 25 38 45 36 41 43 321 216 276 331 238 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 143 146 149 154 159 161 156 154 154 157 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 131 132 133 135 142 148 148 142 139 139 142 146 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 51 48 48 50 53 60 61 64 65 63 60 60 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 9 9 8 11 14 17 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -56 -78 -79 -75 -64 -64 -37 11 45 76 109 112 200 MB DIV -9 -14 -24 -32 -6 5 -9 29 18 49 5 29 25 LAND (KM) 1204 1098 1005 933 874 715 530 400 278 266 296 282 299 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.9 23.4 23.8 24.1 24.0 23.2 22.6 22.2 22.2 22.6 23.4 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 55.0 56.4 57.7 58.9 60.0 62.4 65.1 67.6 69.7 71.4 72.9 74.7 76.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 11 12 12 11 9 7 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 39 38 44 45 45 57 42 71 63 30 68 57 93 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -14. -23. -31. -40. -45. -49. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -10. -18. -26. -36. -37. -28. -19. -11. -7. -4. 0. PERSISTENCE 8. 6. 2. -1. -3. -2. 1. -3. -7. -7. -5. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. -5. -19. -31. -47. -54. -52. -52. -52. -51. -47. -40. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. -5. -19. -31. -47. -54. -52. -52. -52. -51. -47. -40. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/04/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 50.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.3/ 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/04/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED