* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * JOSEPHINE AL102008 09/04/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 49 49 49 48 46 45 45 46 47 48 V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 49 49 49 48 46 45 45 46 47 48 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 49 48 48 47 47 47 46 47 50 54 58 SHEAR (KTS) 22 27 23 24 18 23 21 20 16 12 9 11 18 SHEAR DIR 200 208 198 201 191 166 186 197 218 205 232 223 288 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 133 131 131 128 126 125 128 132 134 133 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 130 127 127 124 121 118 121 124 127 128 130 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -54.0 -54.5 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 72 69 67 64 62 57 55 48 48 48 50 47 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 15 14 14 13 11 9 7 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 28 36 52 53 52 52 69 50 33 9 -3 -24 -37 200 MB DIV -22 -26 5 -3 6 7 24 14 -4 2 -11 -2 9 LAND (KM) 1433 1555 1678 1805 1933 1930 1797 1709 1639 1604 1593 1518 1318 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.3 15.9 16.7 17.4 18.2 19.0 20.5 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 30.8 32.0 33.1 34.3 35.5 37.8 40.1 42.4 44.4 46.5 48.5 51.0 53.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 11 12 11 11 10 12 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 9 7 7 9 16 17 21 27 27 24 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -6. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -15. -14. -12. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/04/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/04/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED