* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 09/04/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 58 59 58 57 54 50 46 43 48 39 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 58 59 58 47 41 36 33 32 37 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 56 57 58 58 49 42 41 33 34 34 34 SHEAR (KTS) 22 22 26 20 20 13 20 36 54 77 86 81 54 SHEAR DIR 196 165 172 152 147 179 193 194 212 227 243 241 259 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.3 27.3 23.5 17.0 16.9 14.3 14.5 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 161 157 152 143 131 100 78 78 74 74 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 148 149 146 138 128 117 91 74 74 71 71 71 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.2 -50.1 -50.3 -50.2 -49.9 -50.4 -50.6 -51.2 -52.0 -52.1 -50.7 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 53 53 49 46 45 49 49 46 48 53 51 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 28 26 25 24 19 18 15 14 15 17 29 29 850 MB ENV VOR 123 134 106 82 63 28 26 29 51 100 126 173 227 200 MB DIV 81 80 44 28 9 43 52 73 90 76 67 66 45 LAND (KM) 426 479 495 362 282 177 -48 28 74 20 22 596 1231 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 25.1 26.1 27.4 28.6 31.6 34.9 38.6 42.8 46.6 49.6 51.1 51.3 LONG(DEG W) 73.1 74.2 75.2 76.5 77.7 78.6 77.7 74.7 69.8 63.0 54.7 45.6 36.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 15 17 15 16 19 25 29 31 31 29 29 HEAT CONTENT 73 72 65 57 38 34 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. -11. -9. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -5. -9. -12. -7. -14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. -1. -5. -9. -12. -7. -16. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 09/04/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 09/04/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY