* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * IKE AL092008 09/04/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 108 97 88 76 71 77 78 81 81 83 86 V (KT) LAND 120 117 108 97 88 76 71 77 78 81 81 83 86 V (KT) LGE mod 120 119 115 108 103 93 87 87 92 100 104 105 107 SHEAR (KTS) 20 29 31 33 33 29 15 4 5 10 11 1 3 SHEAR DIR 7 22 37 42 41 37 53 352 272 253 301 148 66 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 146 149 152 155 159 161 157 155 156 160 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 134 136 139 142 147 148 143 140 140 143 142 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 48 49 51 54 58 64 67 65 64 61 57 59 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 11 10 9 8 7 11 12 16 17 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -77 -82 -80 -77 -77 -55 -15 10 49 69 87 85 200 MB DIV -22 -29 -36 -7 26 -34 14 21 30 18 5 10 30 LAND (KM) 1099 1006 926 843 774 625 488 352 291 311 278 322 311 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.4 23.7 23.9 24.0 23.7 22.9 22.5 22.4 22.7 23.2 24.2 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 56.4 57.7 58.9 60.2 61.4 63.7 66.0 68.3 70.6 72.6 74.3 75.8 77.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 38 44 45 45 47 56 45 72 54 65 82 58 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. 0. -1. -5. -10. -19. -27. -34. -39. -43. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR -5. -13. -22. -29. -37. -35. -24. -16. -10. -7. -3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -2. -1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -12. -23. -32. -44. -49. -43. -42. -39. -39. -37. -34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -12. -23. -32. -44. -49. -43. -42. -39. -39. -37. -34. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/04/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/04/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY