* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * JOSEPHINE AL102008 09/04/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 43 42 42 41 40 39 40 42 44 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 43 43 42 42 41 40 39 40 42 44 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 43 43 42 42 43 43 44 46 50 56 SHEAR (KTS) 26 28 26 19 17 24 18 18 18 10 6 4 7 SHEAR DIR 200 196 203 194 176 176 191 183 210 208 219 232 299 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.8 27.2 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 130 129 128 124 122 122 126 131 131 131 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 127 126 124 122 118 115 114 118 123 122 121 121 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 69 67 65 63 64 56 56 54 53 48 46 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 15 14 15 14 13 10 9 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 36 53 59 59 62 66 67 39 11 -9 -24 -38 -48 200 MB DIV -43 -6 -10 3 -6 17 17 13 -5 -20 -26 -21 6 LAND (KM) 1538 1650 1761 1873 1985 1972 1886 1819 1772 1741 1702 1587 1421 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.1 15.4 16.1 16.8 17.5 18.4 19.2 19.9 20.7 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 31.8 32.9 33.9 35.0 36.0 38.0 39.9 41.8 43.7 45.7 48.1 50.3 52.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 7 6 6 8 8 12 19 20 26 24 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -12. -9. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/04/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/04/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY