* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 09/04/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 53 53 53 52 48 45 44 46 44 39 V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 53 53 53 36 31 32 28 34 32 28 V (KT) LGE mod 55 54 54 54 55 56 38 39 37 34 34 34 36 SHEAR (KTS) 26 23 13 19 20 16 23 44 65 85 98 77 66 SHEAR DIR 171 169 150 133 146 189 196 209 216 237 256 249 241 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.0 24.6 21.5 14.0 16.2 12.8 14.2 14.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 157 152 147 140 106 90 74 77 72 72 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 148 144 138 132 125 96 83 71 73 70 69 69 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.2 -50.4 -50.3 -49.9 -50.1 -50.0 -51.0 -51.2 -51.9 -51.3 -49.3 -48.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 7 4 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 52 48 49 48 50 52 47 45 52 50 44 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 27 25 24 22 19 18 15 13 15 23 26 34 850 MB ENV VOR 125 110 84 64 55 30 57 30 95 87 61 151 201 200 MB DIV 73 42 21 10 32 42 93 76 83 68 23 25 21 LAND (KM) 477 493 387 347 316 52 -42 -10 22 -15 360 917 1394 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 26.3 27.4 28.8 30.1 33.5 37.3 41.0 44.9 48.3 51.3 52.0 50.9 LONG(DEG W) 74.2 75.2 76.2 77.1 77.9 78.0 76.3 72.3 66.2 58.4 49.5 41.2 33.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 18 22 27 31 32 29 24 24 HEAT CONTENT 73 64 56 46 54 3 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -12. -5. -3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -4. -9. -12. -9. -11. -14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -7. -10. -11. -9. -11. -16. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 09/04/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 09/04/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY