* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * IKE AL092008 09/04/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 108 100 93 87 78 78 80 82 84 88 88 88 V (KT) LAND 115 108 100 93 87 78 78 80 82 84 88 88 88 V (KT) LGE mod 115 108 102 97 93 87 84 85 89 95 100 104 104 SHEAR (KTS) 25 27 30 32 29 25 9 7 5 9 3 6 1 SHEAR DIR 17 32 39 41 38 33 20 291 286 270 41 263 203 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 149 152 154 160 161 156 154 155 160 161 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 134 136 138 141 149 150 141 139 140 145 142 137 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 48 51 53 59 59 59 65 63 61 54 56 53 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 11 13 15 18 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR -69 -87 -79 -71 -68 -76 -45 -14 16 42 73 66 71 200 MB DIV -27 -41 -13 18 22 -9 24 16 32 2 28 5 30 LAND (KM) 1014 926 851 770 697 528 377 296 300 303 315 332 228 LAT (DEG N) 23.4 23.7 23.9 23.9 23.8 23.2 22.6 22.4 22.5 23.0 23.9 24.9 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 57.6 58.9 60.1 61.3 62.4 65.2 68.0 70.1 71.7 73.4 75.4 76.9 77.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 12 13 12 8 8 9 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 44 45 45 45 56 42 74 56 49 72 80 86 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -6. -15. -23. -30. -34. -38. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR -5. -12. -21. -27. -33. -29. -20. -13. -7. -4. 0. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -22. -28. -37. -37. -35. -33. -31. -27. -27. -27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -15. -22. -28. -37. -37. -35. -33. -31. -27. -27. -27. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/04/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/04/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY