* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * JOSEPHINE AL102008 09/04/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 35 35 34 34 34 35 36 38 41 45 48 V (KT) LAND 40 37 35 35 34 34 34 35 36 38 41 45 48 V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 35 33 33 33 34 34 36 38 43 48 54 SHEAR (KTS) 24 23 17 15 19 18 17 10 10 4 7 7 0 SHEAR DIR 195 197 197 167 155 171 189 176 187 235 131 181 13 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 129 128 127 125 123 122 125 129 130 129 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 124 122 121 120 117 116 115 118 121 121 118 118 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 64 62 63 53 59 54 52 47 43 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 14 11 9 7 6 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 52 54 55 58 55 60 32 13 -9 -24 -46 -50 -49 200 MB DIV -13 -9 5 0 12 10 7 -2 0 -27 -1 -3 -9 LAND (KM) 1645 1735 1825 1911 1996 1989 1905 1841 1800 1780 1771 1695 1568 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.3 18.3 19.3 20.2 21.0 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 32.8 33.7 34.5 35.3 36.1 37.6 39.3 41.2 43.1 45.1 47.2 49.2 51.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 7 6 7 8 8 10 17 18 25 24 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 2. 5. 10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 1. 5. 8. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/04/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/04/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY