* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 09/05/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 55 54 55 53 49 48 46 42 39 36 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 55 54 41 31 33 32 31 27 25 21 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 56 57 58 44 32 34 33 32 31 32 34 SHEAR (KTS) 28 20 22 21 20 21 32 53 94 101 106 72 31 SHEAR DIR 165 167 151 164 187 198 196 216 227 245 258 246 200 SST (C) 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.1 26.8 22.7 16.0 17.0 13.9 14.1 14.0 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 157 152 147 141 125 95 77 78 72 73 73 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 144 140 135 127 112 88 74 74 70 70 70 70 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.8 -50.7 -50.3 -50.3 -50.7 -50.6 -51.1 -50.6 -51.0 -49.9 -47.7 -46.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 7 6 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 46 49 48 49 54 45 46 50 51 40 35 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 25 25 23 20 19 17 16 18 20 22 27 35 850 MB ENV VOR 114 85 65 51 45 57 42 70 68 60 80 147 201 200 MB DIV 55 31 4 32 39 58 95 85 62 28 -6 -4 28 LAND (KM) 427 321 262 278 134 -119 -20 20 144 90 526 1144 1219 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 27.1 28.3 30.1 31.9 35.4 39.2 43.6 47.8 50.3 51.0 51.8 52.8 LONG(DEG W) 75.9 76.9 77.8 78.4 78.9 78.2 75.2 69.6 62.2 54.4 46.6 37.7 28.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 19 18 20 26 32 31 26 26 29 29 HEAT CONTENT 73 40 40 53 28 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -9. -7. -6. -2. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -15. -18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -6. -7. -9. -13. -15. -19. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 09/05/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 09/05/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY