* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * IKE AL092008 09/05/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 108 100 92 85 79 82 84 86 88 91 92 91 V (KT) LAND 115 108 100 92 85 79 82 84 86 88 91 92 91 V (KT) LGE mod 115 110 104 99 94 88 86 89 96 101 105 107 107 SHEAR (KTS) 26 32 35 34 30 16 3 7 8 7 3 3 5 SHEAR DIR 29 36 40 37 39 32 329 305 258 310 196 32 150 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 149 152 154 156 161 159 155 153 158 161 161 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 136 140 142 144 150 148 143 140 142 144 142 140 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 10 11 10 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 49 54 60 61 62 68 68 61 57 55 57 56 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 7 10 10 13 15 17 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR -70 -64 -62 -73 -76 -51 -21 12 39 58 70 67 66 200 MB DIV -40 -19 9 16 -1 -1 20 40 16 13 28 5 22 LAND (KM) 919 831 753 660 580 477 303 266 244 255 284 215 49 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 23.7 23.7 23.5 23.3 22.8 22.3 22.2 22.5 23.3 24.3 25.1 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 58.9 60.1 61.3 62.6 63.8 66.5 69.0 71.4 73.6 75.3 76.7 78.2 79.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 45 45 45 56 57 48 65 30 63 63 93 1 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -5. -14. -22. -29. -33. -37. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR -5. -14. -24. -30. -34. -27. -19. -12. -7. -3. 1. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -23. -30. -36. -33. -31. -29. -27. -24. -23. -24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -15. -23. -30. -36. -33. -31. -29. -27. -24. -23. -24. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/05/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/05/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY