* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * JOSEPHINE AL102008 09/05/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 37 36 37 38 39 40 42 45 48 49 V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 37 36 37 38 39 40 42 45 48 49 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 37 37 37 37 39 40 42 44 47 52 57 SHEAR (KTS) 24 19 14 19 22 14 12 16 14 9 8 7 11 SHEAR DIR 205 204 180 166 167 205 212 239 249 254 229 243 248 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.8 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 127 126 125 123 120 122 127 129 129 128 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 120 119 118 117 116 112 115 118 120 118 116 115 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 67 68 66 62 61 57 54 56 50 50 46 44 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 12 9 8 6 6 5 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 55 55 54 56 47 6 -11 -26 -43 -50 -58 -56 200 MB DIV -5 0 1 19 17 3 16 -1 -11 -30 -1 13 -5 LAND (KM) 1707 1787 1867 1948 2028 1987 1913 1877 1856 1851 1816 1737 1603 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.4 17.2 18.2 19.3 20.3 21.1 21.9 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 33.4 34.2 34.9 35.7 36.4 38.1 40.0 41.8 43.7 45.7 47.8 49.5 51.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 10 11 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 6 5 6 7 7 10 19 21 22 23 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 11. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. 8. 9. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/05/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/05/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY