* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 09/05/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 58 58 58 55 49 44 42 42 47 44 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 58 58 37 31 30 28 29 29 34 31 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 56 57 58 37 32 34 33 32 31 33 37 SHEAR (KTS) 20 19 18 13 17 24 49 67 79 93 81 56 38 SHEAR DIR 162 150 163 184 186 210 215 219 233 250 259 245 210 SST (C) 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.8 24.8 21.5 14.0 16.3 13.0 15.1 13.5 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 150 146 142 137 108 90 74 77 73 74 72 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 136 131 126 122 97 83 71 74 70 71 69 70 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.9 -50.6 -50.5 -50.8 -51.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 -50.2 -49.2 -47.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 4 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 48 48 50 50 48 48 48 57 52 41 41 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 22 21 19 17 14 14 14 14 17 23 34 39 850 MB ENV VOR 84 59 48 35 31 52 14 61 50 26 93 167 217 200 MB DIV 32 6 28 23 29 83 76 88 55 19 17 41 40 LAND (KM) 278 264 264 165 38 -108 -35 15 19 295 956 1456 899 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 28.7 30.1 31.7 33.3 37.1 41.1 44.5 47.5 49.7 51.3 51.6 51.0 LONG(DEG W) 77.3 77.9 78.5 78.7 78.8 77.2 72.8 66.2 58.1 49.3 40.3 31.5 23.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 16 18 23 28 31 32 30 28 27 27 HEAT CONTENT 38 40 52 32 1 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 16 CX,CY: -9/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -6. -1. 7. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -9. -11. -10. -6. -9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -6. -11. -13. -13. -8. -11. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 09/05/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 09/05/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED