* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * IKE AL092008 09/05/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 110 103 96 91 88 90 92 92 92 89 89 87 V (KT) LAND 115 110 103 96 91 88 90 92 92 92 89 89 66 V (KT) LGE mod 115 111 107 102 98 93 92 96 102 107 109 107 80 SHEAR (KTS) 29 31 31 28 24 16 4 3 10 6 8 1 14 SHEAR DIR 38 40 37 46 35 27 9 280 278 8 308 59 275 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 156 157 159 161 157 155 154 160 162 159 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 140 143 145 148 150 145 141 140 144 145 140 136 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 55 59 60 63 61 67 61 59 55 56 54 56 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 12 10 11 11 11 13 13 14 12 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -58 -61 -74 -75 -69 -50 -29 17 46 73 38 50 24 200 MB DIV -14 0 14 9 -14 -1 6 14 0 7 -7 6 3 LAND (KM) 820 734 656 580 527 387 304 288 235 235 268 92 -55 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 23.7 23.6 23.4 23.2 22.7 22.5 22.5 22.8 23.5 24.7 25.6 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 60.3 61.6 62.8 64.1 65.3 68.0 70.4 72.6 74.4 76.2 77.8 79.3 80.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 12 12 12 11 9 9 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 45 47 57 56 42 72 52 64 76 38 32 72 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -13. -21. -28. -33. -37. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR -6. -14. -22. -27. -29. -22. -13. -8. -3. 0. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. -1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -19. -24. -27. -25. -23. -23. -23. -26. -26. -28. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -12. -19. -24. -27. -25. -23. -23. -23. -26. -26. -28. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/05/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/05/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED