* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * JOSEPHINE AL102008 09/05/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 47 48 49 48 48 46 46 45 45 46 45 V (KT) LAND 45 47 47 48 49 48 48 46 46 45 45 46 45 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 48 48 49 49 49 50 50 51 52 55 58 SHEAR (KTS) 22 21 22 21 16 16 17 21 16 7 11 7 19 SHEAR DIR 198 186 175 175 176 204 215 239 256 267 273 279 288 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.5 27.0 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 124 123 122 120 119 125 129 130 129 129 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 117 116 115 115 113 112 117 120 120 117 116 114 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 69 64 61 62 60 51 57 49 48 41 43 38 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 10 9 6 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 56 60 54 60 61 24 0 -17 -35 -55 -66 -73 -72 200 MB DIV -6 2 15 21 18 10 0 8 -30 -9 -11 23 -19 LAND (KM) 1771 1846 1921 1997 2072 2013 1968 1915 1883 1889 1836 1713 1619 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.1 16.3 17.2 18.3 19.3 20.2 21.2 22.3 23.3 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 34.0 34.7 35.4 36.1 36.8 38.6 40.6 42.7 44.8 46.8 48.6 50.1 51.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 5 5 6 5 6 15 20 21 21 20 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -10. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/05/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/05/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED