* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 09/05/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 57 58 59 58 52 50 50 47 49 40 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 57 44 32 34 30 27 30 27 28 20 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 57 58 46 32 32 32 31 34 34 37 40 SHEAR (KTS) 18 20 18 19 17 30 44 69 86 90 81 46 26 SHEAR DIR 159 167 187 201 214 207 214 225 242 253 249 234 193 SST (C) 28.8 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.2 23.6 18.7 16.7 14.3 14.1 16.4 14.9 15.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 143 137 135 130 100 82 78 74 73 76 74 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 128 122 121 116 92 77 75 72 70 72 70 70 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.5 -50.5 -50.7 -51.0 -50.8 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -50.6 -49.1 -48.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 6 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 45 46 49 50 51 47 46 48 44 33 30 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 23 21 19 19 18 19 18 19 24 27 34 31 850 MB ENV VOR 45 42 47 30 42 24 54 88 84 69 103 141 230 200 MB DIV 12 19 17 25 55 98 92 42 37 1 21 -2 31 LAND (KM) 166 176 144 21 -86 -54 19 11 -3 602 1212 1249 680 LAT (DEG N) 28.2 29.7 31.1 32.8 34.5 38.1 42.2 46.0 48.8 50.1 49.9 50.5 51.7 LONG(DEG W) 78.8 79.3 79.8 79.5 79.1 76.0 70.6 63.1 54.0 45.0 36.4 28.1 20.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 17 19 26 31 33 32 29 27 26 26 HEAT CONTENT 53 42 16 1 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 17 CX,CY: -12/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -1. 0. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. -1. -3. -3. -5. -4. -13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. -3. -5. -5. -8. -6. -15. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 09/05/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 09/05/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY