* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * IKE AL092008 09/05/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 99 93 90 87 86 87 88 88 89 86 86 83 V (KT) LAND 105 99 93 90 87 86 87 88 88 89 86 86 66 V (KT) LGE mod 105 100 95 91 89 86 87 93 100 104 105 103 81 SHEAR (KTS) 32 32 29 24 21 13 9 5 15 11 15 9 16 SHEAR DIR 35 40 41 34 34 21 4 322 350 357 7 324 313 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 158 159 159 157 154 153 156 160 161 165 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 146 149 149 146 142 140 142 144 143 146 142 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 12 10 700-500 MB RH 58 59 60 61 62 64 65 63 61 58 58 52 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 10 10 10 11 11 11 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -70 -74 -69 -62 -46 -4 27 50 60 39 25 -7 200 MB DIV -3 16 2 -16 0 -11 26 5 0 -18 6 5 -9 LAND (KM) 675 587 520 472 411 267 239 195 158 126 115 40 -4 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.2 23.0 22.8 22.5 22.1 22.0 22.3 22.7 23.3 23.8 24.8 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 62.0 63.3 64.6 65.9 67.2 69.7 72.1 74.3 76.2 78.0 79.6 80.8 81.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 51 57 44 44 66 62 24 63 46 36 60 45 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 0. -8. -14. -20. -24. -27. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR -5. -13. -19. -23. -24. -19. -11. -7. -4. -2. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -15. -18. -19. -18. -17. -17. -16. -19. -19. -22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -12. -15. -18. -19. -18. -17. -17. -16. -19. -19. -22. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/05/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/05/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY