* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * JOSEPHINE AL102008 09/05/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 38 38 35 35 36 36 38 39 40 40 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 38 38 35 35 36 36 38 39 40 40 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 40 39 39 38 38 39 42 46 50 52 SHEAR (KTS) 21 25 24 22 20 20 15 12 9 8 9 15 21 SHEAR DIR 173 166 167 180 173 194 223 227 218 185 229 236 270 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.7 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 123 121 120 117 121 125 128 127 128 130 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 116 115 114 113 111 113 116 116 114 114 116 117 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 64 61 60 60 56 49 50 45 43 39 37 38 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 8 7 6 3 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 45 52 56 47 4 -21 -43 -69 -73 -73 -70 -66 200 MB DIV 2 16 32 17 -13 -7 -3 -15 -27 -5 -2 -9 -24 LAND (KM) 1825 1889 1954 2042 2096 2031 2001 1995 2024 2022 1928 1819 1710 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.6 17.0 18.1 19.4 20.6 21.8 22.8 23.6 24.7 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 34.5 35.1 35.7 36.5 37.3 39.4 41.5 43.4 45.2 46.7 48.0 49.5 51.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 8 9 10 12 11 10 10 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 5 6 6 4 9 19 16 17 20 19 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/05/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/05/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY