* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * TEST AL852008 09/05/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 16 18 20 21 26 31 40 43 47 56 63 71 V (KT) LAND 15 16 18 20 21 26 31 40 43 47 56 63 71 V (KT) LGE mod 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 20 25 25 22 21 11 9 6 3 10 3 7 4 SHEAR DIR 261 248 247 245 241 237 255 209 165 159 197 159 326 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 143 143 145 146 148 148 149 147 147 150 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 138 137 136 138 141 144 144 145 142 142 144 145 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 58 57 57 54 51 51 53 55 54 51 51 47 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 6 7 6 5 4 -5 -6 -24 -37 -42 -51 -45 200 MB DIV 21 17 24 16 3 5 0 14 -10 -14 7 -8 -14 LAND (KM) 1108 1081 1053 1033 1016 1012 1008 1028 899 787 721 515 278 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.4 14.1 14.8 15.6 16.3 16.9 17.5 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 45.5 46.1 46.7 47.2 47.7 48.9 50.5 52.3 54.3 56.4 58.7 60.9 63.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 6 6 5 6 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 33 31 36 43 46 58 67 75 69 64 64 75 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 873 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 4. 11. 19. 25. 32. 37. 41. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 15. 24. 30. 35. 44. 51. 59. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 6. 11. 16. 25. 29. 32. 41. 48. 56. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL852008 TEST 09/05/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL852008 TEST 09/05/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY