* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 09/05/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 63 64 65 63 59 51 46 41 41 34 20 V (KT) LAND 60 62 63 52 42 39 32 28 27 23 23 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 64 55 43 42 36 31 32 30 31 33 36 SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 14 16 21 40 58 84 92 74 48 40 50 SHEAR DIR 158 203 234 224 217 216 221 242 252 253 232 189 171 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.4 25.5 21.9 14.4 15.6 13.3 15.7 14.6 14.8 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 138 132 113 93 75 76 73 75 73 74 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 127 122 117 102 86 73 73 71 71 70 70 71 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.3 -50.6 -50.8 -50.4 -50.9 -50.6 -51.2 -51.3 -50.1 -49.0 -49.3 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 6 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 46 47 49 48 48 45 49 46 41 35 45 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 22 20 19 18 20 21 20 23 25 30 29 20 850 MB ENV VOR 40 34 27 28 26 -12 55 64 35 84 118 164 144 200 MB DIV 26 12 44 69 106 86 104 53 8 6 5 21 36 LAND (KM) 256 191 64 -47 -99 32 -9 -59 475 1104 1391 816 213 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 31.5 33.0 34.8 36.5 40.5 44.8 48.1 50.0 50.7 50.6 50.8 51.6 LONG(DEG W) 78.5 78.6 78.7 77.9 77.0 72.6 65.2 56.3 46.8 38.0 30.2 21.9 13.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 19 22 31 35 34 30 26 25 27 27 HEAT CONTENT 52 36 3 9999 9999 0 0 9999 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 17 CX,CY: 0/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -4. -2. -1. 4. 2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 0. -8. -12. -16. -16. -23. -38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -1. -9. -14. -18. -19. -26. -40. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 09/05/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.3 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 09/05/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY