* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * IKE AL092008 09/05/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 94 90 87 87 89 94 96 99 100 100 99 96 V (KT) LAND 100 94 90 87 87 89 94 96 99 100 100 99 96 V (KT) LGE mod 100 94 90 87 84 84 88 96 105 110 110 109 105 SHEAR (KTS) 30 27 25 23 17 4 2 3 7 7 8 12 13 SHEAR DIR 38 39 33 39 41 65 141 281 27 322 43 294 325 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 159 159 159 156 154 157 160 161 162 164 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 149 149 149 145 143 143 144 142 142 143 141 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 62 62 66 68 65 64 62 59 55 58 53 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 12 13 13 15 16 18 18 19 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR -65 -69 -60 -52 -47 -29 11 37 72 76 90 70 74 200 MB DIV -5 -5 -13 11 1 14 27 22 29 -7 20 35 20 LAND (KM) 568 489 444 387 304 244 205 154 108 103 121 55 63 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 22.8 22.5 22.4 22.2 22.0 22.2 22.6 23.1 23.6 24.1 24.9 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 63.4 64.8 66.1 67.4 68.7 71.2 73.8 76.1 77.9 79.4 80.6 81.6 82.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 12 12 10 8 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 57 43 49 70 70 41 61 50 56 79 95 18 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. -5. -10. -16. -19. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR -4. -10. -16. -18. -16. -10. -4. 0. 4. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -13. -13. -11. -6. -4. -1. 0. 0. -1. -4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -10. -13. -13. -11. -6. -4. -1. 0. 0. -1. -4. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/05/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/05/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY