* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * JOSEPHINE AL102008 09/05/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 31 30 28 27 26 29 31 33 36 38 37 V (KT) LAND 35 32 31 30 28 27 26 29 31 33 36 38 37 V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 30 29 28 28 28 28 29 31 34 38 40 SHEAR (KTS) 23 22 20 15 17 17 17 12 3 7 12 21 24 SHEAR DIR 174 180 188 187 187 214 235 250 212 194 199 232 248 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.9 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 121 120 119 118 123 126 127 127 128 131 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 115 114 112 112 111 115 115 115 114 115 115 115 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 56 54 57 50 51 44 43 35 38 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 8 6 6 4 3 3 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 44 54 55 45 19 1 -24 -39 -61 -53 -70 -53 -58 200 MB DIV 2 15 18 -7 4 -10 13 -31 4 -29 2 -24 -12 LAND (KM) 1868 1949 2031 2092 2058 2012 1976 1992 2020 2006 1878 1770 1697 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.5 17.0 17.4 18.5 19.7 20.9 21.9 22.9 23.9 24.9 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 34.9 35.7 36.4 37.3 38.2 40.2 42.3 44.0 45.5 47.0 48.6 50.1 51.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 10 10 11 11 9 9 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 6 6 5 5 13 21 16 17 20 19 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -6. -4. -2. 1. 3. 4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -6. -4. -2. 1. 3. 2. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/05/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/05/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY