* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * IKE AL092008 09/06/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 91 89 89 90 95 96 97 99 100 99 98 V (KT) LAND 100 96 91 89 89 90 95 96 97 99 100 99 98 V (KT) LGE mod 100 97 94 91 89 87 92 99 106 110 112 111 105 SHEAR (KTS) 28 30 27 18 14 6 5 8 3 3 7 8 12 SHEAR DIR 27 25 30 35 22 13 218 342 126 354 257 308 276 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 160 159 157 154 154 159 162 163 166 162 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 150 150 148 146 143 142 146 147 145 145 138 135 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.5 -52.0 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 12 12 11 11 10 11 10 11 9 11 700-500 MB RH 64 64 65 68 66 66 66 61 58 59 58 59 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 13 14 12 15 17 18 18 19 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR -71 -66 -54 -51 -47 -15 19 44 61 55 65 58 57 200 MB DIV 3 -3 1 0 -2 22 17 17 9 12 29 30 60 LAND (KM) 493 450 372 293 252 245 151 101 90 110 105 128 141 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 22.6 22.3 22.2 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.6 23.3 24.0 24.8 25.3 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 64.8 66.2 67.6 68.9 70.1 72.4 74.9 77.1 79.1 80.8 82.1 82.8 83.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 42 50 74 69 62 56 77 60 75 96 33 10 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. -5. -10. -15. -19. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR -4. -11. -15. -17. -15. -9. -4. 1. 5. 7. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -10. -9. -8. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -9. -11. -11. -10. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. -2. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/06/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/06/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY