* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * JOSEPHINE AL102008 09/06/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 25 24 23 25 29 31 35 37 40 40 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 25 24 23 25 29 31 35 37 40 40 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 24 24 23 23 24 26 29 33 36 38 SHEAR (KTS) 20 21 18 19 18 16 7 4 9 8 14 21 21 SHEAR DIR 163 178 183 176 185 227 227 235 162 221 221 239 252 SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.5 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 121 119 117 119 126 128 127 128 129 130 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 113 113 111 109 112 117 117 114 115 115 114 113 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 54 53 53 48 49 43 38 39 39 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 9 8 6 5 4 2 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 60 49 23 7 -9 -36 -58 -68 -63 -62 -48 -52 200 MB DIV 12 18 1 -3 -5 -7 -3 -18 -17 -2 -18 -2 -23 LAND (KM) 1922 2009 2096 2080 2063 2029 1986 2007 2050 1975 1827 1755 1737 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.4 17.9 19.1 20.2 21.4 22.5 23.5 24.4 25.4 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 35.4 36.2 37.0 37.9 38.7 40.7 42.9 44.7 46.1 47.5 49.3 50.5 51.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 10 10 12 11 10 8 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 6 5 4 6 17 17 16 18 19 18 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -5. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -5. -1. 1. 5. 7. 10. 12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -5. -1. 1. 5. 7. 10. 10. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/06/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/06/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY