* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP992008 09/06/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 41 45 49 49 49 47 43 37 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 41 45 49 49 49 47 43 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 26 24 21 SHEAR (KTS) 24 22 17 19 18 17 13 2 1 5 12 22 30 SHEAR DIR 61 59 63 70 60 55 63 319 39 243 186 215 216 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.5 26.2 24.9 24.3 23.7 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 153 153 152 149 147 140 126 112 105 99 89 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -50.9 -52.0 -51.2 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 7 7 5 3 2 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 82 82 82 78 79 77 72 71 66 69 64 60 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 89 74 66 63 71 81 81 77 51 41 42 47 200 MB DIV 78 78 60 56 54 40 15 16 -3 6 2 -7 10 LAND (KM) 454 438 434 436 442 506 580 623 740 851 949 1001 1034 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.3 15.8 16.9 17.9 18.8 19.6 20.4 21.3 22.0 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 103.7 104.4 105.0 106.0 106.9 109.0 111.6 114.1 116.8 119.1 121.1 122.6 123.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 9 11 11 12 13 13 12 11 9 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 15. 21. 24. 25. 24. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 23. 20. 16. 10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 11. 16. 20. 24. 24. 24. 22. 18. 12. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP992008 INVEST 09/06/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992008 INVEST 09/06/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED