* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * HANNA AL082008 09/06/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 61 61 60 55 46 42 36 32 34 29 18 V (KT) LAND 60 46 38 41 40 31 31 26 20 16 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 47 38 40 40 34 31 30 29 29 32 36 39 SHEAR (KTS) 14 11 17 21 30 48 87 96 83 66 43 45 47 SHEAR DIR 234 243 225 219 220 230 246 253 251 242 202 180 172 SST (C) 27.8 26.7 24.2 22.8 21.1 15.0 14.1 14.5 16.2 14.1 14.2 14.7 14.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 126 104 95 89 77 75 73 74 72 72 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 115 94 87 82 74 73 70 70 69 69 68 67 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.9 -50.5 -50.4 -50.5 -51.0 -51.5 -52.2 -51.3 -48.7 -46.4 -47.2 -49.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 53 52 50 47 43 40 44 39 36 54 54 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 20 21 22 21 19 21 22 23 27 26 20 850 MB ENV VOR 23 26 36 22 12 74 13 51 114 178 268 286 191 200 MB DIV 59 78 105 125 98 94 39 21 12 20 65 47 25 LAND (KM) 33 -77 -31 42 15 -31 22 634 1114 1414 837 367 137 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 35.5 37.6 39.4 41.2 44.9 48.9 50.5 50.3 51.0 53.1 54.7 56.2 LONG(DEG W) 78.8 77.4 76.0 73.9 71.8 64.5 53.6 44.7 37.8 30.7 22.6 15.5 8.9 STM SPEED (KT) 20 24 24 24 28 37 36 26 22 25 25 21 20 HEAT CONTENT 1 9999 9999 0 0 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 18 CX,CY: 3/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -14. -18. -20. -23. -25. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 6. 7. 5. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -21. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -3. -2. -1. -1. 2. 1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 1. 0. -5. -13. -17. -22. -25. -23. -28. -40. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. 0. -5. -14. -18. -24. -28. -26. -31. -42. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082008 HANNA 09/06/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.3 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082008 HANNA 09/06/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED