* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * IKE AL092008 09/06/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 97 95 93 94 98 101 101 101 103 102 100 96 V (KT) LAND 100 97 95 93 94 98 101 101 101 103 102 100 96 V (KT) LGE mod 100 98 96 94 92 91 97 104 110 112 113 111 105 SHEAR (KTS) 33 28 16 16 8 2 5 6 3 1 11 9 20 SHEAR DIR 17 23 17 14 5 5 308 37 310 303 286 279 286 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 156 154 152 157 162 164 167 166 164 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 151 150 145 143 142 146 148 148 148 145 142 137 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 62 61 67 65 58 66 63 64 57 61 56 65 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 12 14 13 15 16 15 17 17 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -66 -50 -56 -56 -1 19 50 45 57 45 59 24 200 MB DIV -16 -11 15 -29 19 41 11 13 9 16 12 21 -8 LAND (KM) 444 367 272 245 233 157 66 16 22 100 178 223 250 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.3 22.0 22.0 21.9 21.8 21.9 22.4 23.2 24.1 24.8 25.5 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 66.2 67.6 69.0 70.3 71.5 74.0 76.5 78.6 80.4 81.9 83.0 84.0 84.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 9 9 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 50 75 70 63 6 69 70 0 36 90 26 64 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. -4. -10. -15. -18. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR -5. -9. -13. -14. -11. -6. -2. 3. 7. 8. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -6. -2. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 0. -4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -5. -7. -6. -2. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 0. -4. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092008 IKE 09/06/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092008 IKE 09/06/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED