* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * JOSEPHINE AL102008 09/06/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 21 21 25 30 34 39 42 46 47 V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 21 21 25 30 34 39 42 46 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 20 19 19 19 19 21 23 26 30 34 36 SHEAR (KTS) 21 18 17 18 14 11 6 3 7 8 13 15 24 SHEAR DIR 184 191 182 195 211 227 252 354 193 176 227 236 251 SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.9 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 121 119 119 118 118 124 128 129 128 128 130 131 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 110 111 111 111 116 118 118 116 114 115 114 115 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -54.2 -54.4 -54.9 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 59 54 51 57 47 52 45 47 41 41 41 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 10 9 6 6 4 3 3 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 60 52 27 15 11 -19 -36 -63 -67 -66 -57 -52 -41 200 MB DIV 11 6 5 15 5 9 -29 -4 -12 18 -12 0 -18 LAND (KM) 2031 2100 2065 2028 1999 1946 1938 1961 1945 1830 1726 1644 1573 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.7 18.2 19.3 20.4 21.5 22.6 23.6 24.5 25.2 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 36.4 37.2 37.9 39.0 40.0 42.2 44.1 45.9 47.5 49.0 50.4 51.6 52.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 5 4 5 12 20 18 19 19 20 18 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -5. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. 1. 6. 9. 14. 18. 21. 24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 5. 9. 14. 17. 21. 22. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/06/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102008 JOSEPHINE 09/06/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED